Bayesian Reasoning and Probability Theory

Does being tall make you more likely to become a professional athlete? If you drive a red car, are you more likely to get pulled over? If you flip a coin and get “tails” three times in a row, are you less likely to get “tails” again? Outcomes in a scenario may differ depending on what has already happened. In M213 Bayesian Reasoning and Probability Theory, you'll explore how past events can affect the chances of future outcomes. Sometimes, what’s already happened can change the probability of what happens next. You’ll learn what it means for events to be independent, and how that connects to Bayes’ Rule—a key idea in probability. You’ll use tools like two-way tables to help you understand these concepts and figure out if one event affects another. You’ll learn that probability is really just the chance that something will happen out of all the possible outcomes. Using tools like tables, tree diagrams, and counting methods, you’ll calculate probabilities and decide whether events are connected or not. With the help of technology, you’ll also simulate random events to estimate probabilities and understand what the results really mean. Bayesian reasoning and probability skills are helpful in career fields like biology, health research, and risk management.

Suggested prerequisites for this badge: M211 Data Management and Visualization.
This badge is suggested as a prerequisite for: M214 Statistical Error and Predictive Model Validation.