Modeling with Probability

What makes a game fair? How can we predict the likelihood of a candidate winning an election or a team winning a championship? Modeling with probability is a powerful way to gain insight into the world around us and answer questions like these. Nature, society, business, and everyday life are full of situations involving uncertainty and randomness. Probability models enable us to go beyond guesswork and handle these situations quantitatively. In M113 Modeling with Probability, you will calculate and estimate probabilities by using data. You will make sense of and interpret these results to make predictions, analyze strategies, and inform decisions. As you learn modeling with probability, you will strategically utilize tools like tables, tree diagrams, counting techniques, and the rules of probability. Using technology, you will simulate random processes, approximate probabilities, interpret results, and make appropriate decisions about everyday events. Constructing and interpreting two-way frequency tables to determine if events are independent, approximating conditional probabilities, and calculating the expected value to make informed decisions are also important topics of this badge. Modeling with probability is useful for careers in a variety of fields, like meteorology, risk management, nursing research, public policy, sports, and finance.